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Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory:
Elliott Wave Theory is a popular method of technical analysis that seeks to predict the future price movement of financial markets. Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, the theory is based on the idea that market movements follow a repetitive pattern, driven by investor psychology.
At the core of Elliott’s theory is the idea that markets move in a 5-wave pattern in the direction of the trend, followed by a 3-wave corrective pattern. These waves can be seen on all timeframes and help traders identify potential entry and exit points in the market.
Key Concepts of Elliott Wave Theory:
1. Impulse Waves (The Trend)
2. These are the waves that move in the direction of the overall trend. They are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and represent the price movement in the main direction of the market.
* Wave 1: The initial move up (or down in a bearish market). I like to mark up the first wave how I do my Fibs, from the point where price showed a major impulse.
* Wave 2: A correction of Wave 1 (it doesn’t go lower than the starting point of Wave 1).
* Wave 3: The longest and most powerful wave in the trend.
* Wave 4: A smaller correction in the direction of the trend.
* Wave 5: The final push in the direction of the trend, which can be shorter and weaker than Wave 3.
3. Corrective Waves (The Pullbacks)
4. After the five-wave impulse, the market enters a corrective phase, moving against the trend. This corrective phase is generally a 3-wave pattern, labeled A, B, C:
* Wave A: The initial correction, typically smaller than Wave 3.
* Wave B: A temporary move against the correction (it often confuses traders who think the trend has resumed).
* Wave C: The final move against the trend, usually the strongest and most aggressive.
How to Implement Elliott Wave on BTC/USD:
Let’s break down how you can apply the Elliott Wave Theory to BTC/USD using a simple example.
1. Identify the Trend
2. Start by identifying the current market trend for BTC/USD. Are we in an uptrend or downtrend? This will determine whether you’re looking for a 5-wave impulse up (bullish) or down (bearish).
Short term alt-season, as every loses their minds.
Grand finale of the major markets should result in serious FOMO on crypto.
Just opened a long on bonk again.
Stop: $0.022397
Tagets are on chart.
Time sensitive
Price is compressing just below resistance after a multi-leg rally and a clear five-wave coil. We’ve seen a breakout attempt, but so far, momentum is stalling right at the top of the range (45–46).
Key Levels:
Breakout Trigger: A strong close above 46.1 with convincing volume could launch the next leg up.
Breakdown Risk: If price falls back below 42–43, watch for a fast move back toward the lower range.
Playbook:
Don’t predict—wait for confirmation. If you’re already long from lower, this is a logical area to secure partial profits or tighten stops.
If flat, sit tight until price clearly chooses direction. No need to rush a position at this pivot zone.
Summary:
Compression at resistance can lead to explosive moves—but can also trap late buyers. Let price prove itself before committing.
📊 Technical Analysis – BTCUSDT.P (1H Chart)
✅ 1. Overall Trend:
The market is in a strong bullish trend on the 1-hour chart, confirmed by multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) and BOS (Break of Structure) points.
📌 2. Price Structure:
🔹 First CHoCH:
Indicates weakness in the prior downtrend.
The following BOS confirms a structure shift to the upside.
🔹 Second CHoCH:
After a minor correction, buyers regained control.
Another BOS confirms continuation of bullish momentum.
🟢 3. Demand Zones:
Multiple demand zones are marked in green.
The most relevant zone right now is between 113,100 – 113,600, still untested.
A bullish reaction is likely if price pulls back into this area.
⚠️ 4. Current Price Action:
Price has reached around 115,487 after the latest BOS.
A minor bearish reaction is visible, suggesting a possible short-term correction.
As long as the BOS level holds, the overall structure remains bullish.
🔍 5. Candlestick Signal:
No clear Engulfing candle yet, but if:
A strong red candle forms followed by a full bullish engulfing candle within the demand zone,
→ that would be a valid Bullish Engulfing pattern and a potential reversal signal.
🎯 Conclusion:
Market structure is currently bullish.
Watch for pullbacks to the 113,100–113,600 zone.
Ideal entries come with confirmation (e.g., engulfing candle or strong rejection).
Always apply strict risk management.
❗️Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a buy/sell signal.
Please do your own research and trade based on your personal strategy and risk tolerance.
BTCUSDT.P
1. Recent Price Action & History
BNB is consolidating around $660–$690, recently hitting a 52‑week high near $793 in May, with a 24‑hour range between $668–$687
Nasdaq
+14
TradingView
+14
CoinDCX
+14
.
Over the past month, it’s gained ~2–3%, with an uptick of ~4% in late June
CoinLore
+3
TradingView
+3
changelly.com
+3
.
2. Technical Setups Supporting Uptrend
Descending wedge breakout on 4‑hour chart, with targets around $697–710, then resistance at $728
TradingView
+2
CoinDCX
+2
tradinglounge.com
+2
.
Bullish flag & inverse H&S patterns suggest continuation toward $750–800+ .
Elliott Wave count shows corrective Wave ② ending near $633, projecting a Wave ③ rise; invalidation if drops below $597
TradingView
+2
tradinglounge.com
+2
TradingView
+2
.
Support zones holding firm at $648–637 and $608–592 .
3. Key Indicators
Price is above short‑ & mid‑term EMAs, waiting for hold above the 100/200‑day EMA confluence (~$612)
tradinglounge.com
+3
Iconomi
+3
CoinDCX
+3
.
The Stochastic RSI is overbought, risks a short consolidation before next leg .
🎯 Trade Analysis & Recommendation
You mentioned TP = 781, SL = 610. Here's an aligned plan:
Aspect Details
Entry After retracement into $648–660 or break above $690
Stop Loss (SL) Place around $610–$597 (key support/invalidation zone)
Take Profit (TP) Primary: $750–781 zone; beyond that, targets near $800–$830 plausible
Risk Management Risk ~5%, expect consolidation before breakout
🧭 Summary
Bullish stance justified — price structure supports uptrend, with clear technical triggers and historical momentum. Watch $648–637 and $610–597 as critical levels for pullback and stop placement. If BNB stays above those, chance of hitting your $781 TP is solid, with upside potential beyond.
Bottom Line:
Go long on consolidation pullback or breakout above ~$690
SL: ~$610 (or conservative $597)
TP: initial $781, trailing into $800+ if momentum continues
Tailor position size for acceptable risk and monitor EMA/RSI for signs of exhaustion.
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