AI IN 5, 50 AND 500 YEARS Part 2 / 2

info_d17io04j | 20. August 2020 | 0 | Video News



AI IN 5, 50 AND 500 YEARS Part 2 / 2 Daniel Jeffries Prediction is a tricky business. You have to step outside of your own limitations, your own beliefs, your own flawed and fragmented angle on the world and see it from a thousand different perspectives. You have to see giant abstract patterns and filter through human nature, politics, technology, social dynamics, trends, statistics and probability. It’s so mind-numbingly complex that our tiny little simian brains stand very little chance of getting it right. Even predicting the future five or ten years out is amazingly complicated. So what am I going to do? I’m going to try to predict 50 and 500 years from now! Yes, I realize this is utterly insane. It’s like climbing Mount Everest, with no shoes, no jacket, no Sherpa, and no oxygen after having barely climbed a small hill! Of course, I’m going to do it anyway. When someone asked George Mallory why he climbed Mt Everest, he said “because it was there.” Like many famous quotes, he probably never really said it but who cares? The quote was so good we had to invent it anyway! So let’s go for it! Let’s dive in and take a look at how AI will change society in the next few years, and by the time you’re old and grey, and when you’re long since turned to dust. Where We Are Now?
AI is already radically changing the world. It’s not coming. It’s here. When you talk to your phone and it understands you want directions to Thai food, that’s AI. AI is already driving cars, beating people at ancient board games like Go, pummeling people in complex tournament video games like DOTA 2, and detecting diabetes. Machines hunts down terrorist’s money and the Pentagon just dropped its first comprehensive AI strategy while they build a Joint Artificial Intelligence Center to automated war. Taylor Swift used facial recognition to track predators at concerts. She’s not the only one. Facial recognition is rolling out to airports everywhere all over the world and it’s coming to a street corner near you. Hate it or love it, AI is everywhere. And it’s just getting started. Right now AI is a mustard seed. But from those seeds will grow a wild forest that ripples through every aspect of life from top to bottom. First Light in the Age of Intelligence
In the short term the promise and peril of AI is legion. AI will deliver some of our brightest fantasies and our darkest nightmares. Why both? Because AI is a universal technology. It’s flexible enough to do whatever we want it to do. And that means it will reflect the good and evil of its creators: Us. For all the worry about Terminators and machines taking over, AI is not even close to sentient. It doesn’t have its own desires. It’s not taking over the world any time soon, although we’ll explore that possibility when we gaze 500 years into the future. What we have now is narrow AI. It’s limited to single tasks and it absolutely does whatever we tell it to do. It’s under human control. If it does bad things we have only ourselves to blame. Where we’re going in the next five to fifteen years is a future dominated by that narrow artificial intelligence. AI and how it’s used will reflect and magnify our nature a thousandfold, both the dark and the light. It will live in your cameras, your phone, your computer, your glasses and places public and private. It will power marketing, manufacturing, materials science and both preventative and palliative health care. It will level up surveillance and weapons technology. It will change the way we work, how we work with each other and how the world works. It will become our friend, our co-worker, and our enemy. As Francois Chollet said, “AI will become our interface to the world.” In short, there will be nothing outside of the reach of AI. Welcome to the dawn of the age of intelligence. Come with me now and I’ll show you how it all begins and how it leads us into an intelligence explosion that will make the great shifts of humans past, hunter-gather to farming, farming to industrial revolution, and industrial revolution to the information age, look trivial by comparison. Health Care
The most hopeful area of AI for good lays in the realm of health care. Elizabeth Holmes might have fooled the world with her grand fraud, but she was right that we are at the beginning of a radical shift from reactive health care to preventative health care. We’ll point our smart phones at a worrying spot on our arm and the AI that lives in our phone will tell us to call the doctor. When we send the report it generated to the doctor’s office, the triage nurse will know to bump us to the head of the schedule if its skin cancer or a festering wound, rather than treating every patient as equal from hysterical hypochondriacs to the old lady who just likes talking to doctors.

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